Knowns, Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns: Scenarios for the Mediterranean Region in 2035

On 20 November 2025, the 2025-2026 MEDAC cohort engaged in a day-long scenario building exercise. Held during the thirtieth anniversary year of the Barcelona Process, this exercise challenged participants to look ahead and envision the possible future of the Mediterranean region. The seminar was led by Dr Natalia Mirimanova, holder of the MEDAC German Chair for Peace Studies and Conflict Prevention.
MEDAC provided its students, who are indeed the immediate stakeholders of the Mediterranean future where they will be at the forefront of politics and diplomacy, the opportunity to develop foresight skills. This exercise utilised a mix of foresight and transformative scenario-building methods. This approach encouraged participants to engage in out-of-the-box thinking and account for knowns, unknowns and unknown unknowns.
The students successfully generated four distinct narratives about the region’s future, focusing on the NATO presence in the region and Democracy in Europe as key drivers of change.
This workshop was funded by the German Chair for Peace Studies and Conflict Prevention at MEDAC and supported by the Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany in Malta.